News of a possible deal with Iran just broke, but the ‘deal’ is so ill-defined, that I am not sure we are still fighting them or what. If the MoU floating around is real, then this is a near-capitulation by the Trump administration. That is why I am skeptical this is actually the final deal. Did Trump really agree to this? How can he possibly defend it? (By blaming it on Vance apparently.)

Anyway, I put up some thoughts a few days ago at the National Security Journal on this weird, drifting semi-war the US has been fighting with Iran since Trump called off the strikes two months ago:

Trump now faces a choice – either to take full possession of a war he started and make his best effort to win, or fade away and accept a default Iranian victory. Because Trump wants neither of these outcomes, the war is now in a weird limbo phase. Trump does not want to risk a ground invasion to achieve a decisive victory – because it could easily become a quagmire repeat of the 2003 Iraq War. But he also does not want to withdraw and accept Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz and retention of its nuclear program. That outcome would be worse than President Barack Obama’s Iran deal, and Trump would be criticized mercilessly for that, which he seems to be aware of.

Weird as it sounds, Trump got bored with the war. He even said so himself. He got high on the easy victory in Venezuela back in January and thought he could pull of another drive-by regime-change. But then Iran outfought the US by closing the Strait, withstanding the airstrikes well, and getting in some solid counter-hits on the US and its allies. So Iran is a good spot for the coming negotiations:

The two big concessions Tehran will likely seek are tolls on Hormuz traffic and retention of its nuclear program in some form. Trump can probably get some movement from Iran on support for its proxies. Iran will need to concede on that anyway to avoid indefinite war with Israel over Hezbollah in Lebanon. But on Hormuz and nukes, Iran will likely be implacable.

Iran fought its way into control of the Strait of Hormuz and would be foolish to give it up. That is a huge strategic victory. Indeed, this is why so many analysts argue that Trump has lost the war despite the devastation the US bombing wrought. Iran can extract rents from Strait traffic by doing nothing more than not threatening transiting tankers. So long as the world is dependent on carbon exports from the Gulf, this is an easy source of money.

Similarly, two waves of US-Israeli strikes on Iran in a year have illustrated the value of nuclear weapons. If Iran had had them, the US and Israel would not have attacked. Trump will not pry that from the Iranians at this point without actually invading the country. How Trump will end this is unclear. I bet he will pay – a lot if necessary – to get some flexibility on the nukes and Hormuz.

Please read the rest here.