There is some chatter that Trump wants to meet Kim Jong-Un sometime soon, so I put up some thoughts at 1945 on what a successful summit might look like. The short version is that Kim will give Trump nothing unless Trump brings something major in trade.

I have been arguing for almost a decade that the big problem with our negotiations with North Korea is that we keep reaching for a huge deal to settle major issues while not offering remotely enough to North Korea to get them to move on nukes, missiles, and the other stuff we care about.

I don’t want to give up anything to North Korea more than anyone else does. The Kim family are the worst people on earth, and the sooner they’re gone the better. BUT, the Kims aren’t stupid. They aren’t going to make concesssions unless we make counter-concessions. And since we want stuff which is pretty important to the regime – restraint on nukes and missiles, ideally denuclearization – the regime is going to ask for a lot in return.

This is why Trump can’t get a NK deal, no matter how much he brags about his deal-making skills. To get real concessions from NK would require that we make concessions, and Trump needs to build a coalition for that give-away. He has to convince Congress, the blob, and US allies to support controversial concessions – like a reduction in US forces in the region or a huge cash payoff – which are commmesurate with what are demanding. And Trump is far too lazy and disinterested to put in the work to build a coaltion of hard choices.

If Trump can’t or won’t work up support for weighty concessions, then NK won’t make weighty concessions – and then whole thing is a waste of time. That is exactly what happened in 2018-19. Trump demanded denuclearization for vague promises of future aid. The NKs aren’t stupid, so they didn’t take the deal. And nothing came of all the fuss.

Finally, I am not actually arguing that the US, South Korea, and Japan should make huge concessions to NK. I don’t want US forces to leave the region or NK let into the IMF either. BUT, this is the scale of the sorts of trades we must entertain if we are going to demand nuclear restraint/denuclearization. That we aren’t considering trades of a commensurate magnitude with our demands tells you that we are not seriously negotiating, that we prefer indefinite stalemate.

So unless Trump builds a coalition for concessions, you know any new summit is just another Trumpian gimmick to be on TV.