Tag Archives: Trump

A Trump-Kim Summit is Pointless unless Trump is Willing Trade Something Substantial for NK Nuclear Restraint

Posted on by

There is some chatter that Trump wants to meet Kim Jong-Un sometime soon, so I put up some thoughts at 1945 on what a successful summit might look like. The short version is that Kim will give Trump nothing unless Trump brings something major in trade.

I have been arguing for almost a decade that the big problem with our negotiations with North Korea is that we keep reaching for a huge deal to settle major issues while not offering remotely enough to North Korea to get them to move on nukes, missiles, and the other stuff we care about.

I don’t want to give up anything to North Korea more than anyone else does. The Kim family are the worst people on earth, and the sooner they’re gone the better. BUT, the Kims aren’t stupid. They aren’t going to make concesssions unless we make counter-concessions. And since we want stuff which is pretty important to the regime – restraint on nukes and missiles, ideally denuclearization – the regime is going to ask for a lot in return.

This is why Trump can’t get a NK deal, no matter how much he brags about his deal-making skills. To get real concessions from NK would require that we make concessions, and Trump needs to build a coalition for that give-away. He has to convince Congress, the blob, and US allies to support controversial concessions – like a reduction in US forces in the region or a huge cash payoff – which are commmesurate with what are demanding. And Trump is far too lazy and disinterested to put in the work to build a coaltion of hard choices.

If Trump can’t or won’t work up support for weighty concessions, then NK won’t make weighty concessions – and then whole thing is a waste of time. That is exactly what happened in 2018-19. Trump demanded denuclearization for vague promises of future aid. The NKs aren’t stupid, so they didn’t take the deal. And nothing came of all the fuss.

Finally, I am not actually arguing that the US, South Korea, and Japan should make huge concessions to NK. I don’t want US forces to leave the region or NK let into the IMF either. BUT, this is the scale of the sorts of trades we must entertain if we are going to demand nuclear restraint/denuclearization. That we aren’t considering trades of a commensurate magnitude with our demands tells you that we are not seriously negotiating, that we prefer indefinite stalemate.

So unless Trump builds a coalition for concessions, you know any new summit is just another Trumpian gimmick to be on TV.

Iran War: Sometimes It is Just Cheaper to Lose and Get Out

Posted on by

We lost in Iran. No, we weren’t militarily defeated, but we did lost the larger political contest the fighting reflected. This post re-ups an essay I wrote to that effect at the National Security Journal.

Iran has left the contest stronger than it entered, mostly notably in taking positive control of the Strait of Hormuz. This threat was always lurking in the background of the US-Iran stand-off, but Iran has actually done it in this conflict – learned how to do it, how its neighbors will respond, how faraway oil importers will respond, and so on. The war is ‘proof of concept’ that Iran can control, in fact, control the strait without excessive punishment.

As I have argued for awhile, Trump’s only option to really win – to compel Iran to capitulate and accept harsh American terms – is a ground invasion to remove the clerical regime in Tehran. I do believe the US could do this, and there is an internal resistance which might help us and take-over after a US victory.

But it’s also probable that the war takes months, if not a year, with large casualties. It could also easily turn into a quagmire like Afghanistan and Iraq did.

Which brings us back to my post’s title – sometime it is just cheaper to lose and go home. I think that is the case here. Trump wanted a major victory from a limited war, did not get it, and now does not know what to do. He will try blockading the strait for awhile, but Iran has proven it can wait out the US and absorb its punishment. Trump, meanwhile, faces high gas prices, a low approval rating, and an election in the fall. Trump can’t wait; Iran can

The best option now is to just take the loss and negotiate some kind of embarrassing peace which puts some restraints on Iran’s nuclear program and keeps the tolls reasonably low. That is probably the best the US can get at this point.

Most importantly, is the larger strategic lesson of yet ANOTHER failed US war in the Middle East is that we should – FINALLY – leave the region. We’re overstretched there. China is far more important. Israeli security can be still be vouchsafed with a smaller US commitment. After 35 years trying to police the Middle East’s political and theological divides, it is time to admit that we cannot do that and get out. That is what I argue in the NSJ piece too.